Turn on a television anywhere in Wisconsin these days and you’re likely to see a political commercial, but where you live determines the messages you’re hearing.
As WisPolitics.com reports this morning:
“Gov. Scott Walker’s TV recent ad focus has been Green Bay, La Crosse and Wausau, while his potential Dem rivals Tom Barrett and Kathleen Falk hit more markets, according to ad tracking by CMAG for WisPolitics.com.
The tracking for Sunday through yesterday shows Barrett running spots in Duluth, Madison, Milwaukee, Green Bay, La Crosse and Wausau, while Falk was up in Green Bay, La Crosse, Madison and Wausau.Meanwhile, the liberal Greater Wisconsin Political Fund is running its ad attacking Walker in the same three markets where he’s on the air, and the Republican Governors Association is going after Barrett in Green Bay, La Crosse, Madison, Milwaukee and Wausau.
Both the RGA and Walker’s negative ads were focused on Barrett only.”
Strategically, it’s intuitive that the Democratic candidates for governor would be advertising all over the state as they’re trying to reach as many primary voters as possible before next month’s election. However, it may be more instructive to look at where Gov. Walker is advertising as it indicates where his campaign feels the election will be won.
Our partners at the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel have a wonderful series of interactive maps from Wisconsin’s past elections, so you can see which candidates from which parties won which areas throughout the state.
Let me try to translate it quickly for you though. Green Bay is the one area of Wisconsin that’s seen a back-and-forth in its Congressional representation over the last 20 or so years going back to 1996 when then-longtime Rep. Toby Roth (R-Wisconsin) did not run for re-election. Since then, Wisconsin’s 8th Congressional District has been represented by Rep. Jay Johnson (D), Rep. Mark Green (R), Rep. Steve Kagen (D) and now Rep. Reid Ribble (R).
That district is why both parties and all the outside groups will continue to advertise in Green Bay through this fall, in both the state and federal elections. It’s key to either party’s electoral success, especially in a statewide campaign.
The Wausau-area Congressional District, the 7th, also switched in recent years from Rep. Dave Obey (D-Wisconsin) to current Rep. Sean Duffy (R-Wisconsin), so that explains the concentration of advertising there.
The governor’s focus in the La Crosse television market is interesting, given the city has trended more and more Democratic in the last few election cycles. However, western Wisconsin has always been viewed by the political figures as more moderate in its leanings, from leading figures in both parties.
As longtime UW-La Crosse Political Science Prof. Joe Heim told me for a story last year on the politics of the area, “We’ve got people over here that have basically, a lot of common sense and work for the good of the area.”
I’d envision folks in those areas to feel pretty popular through at least November.
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Tom Barrett could be a good governor if he can get elected. He can be an inspirational speaker in the right environment, but campaigning is not that environment.
He will NOT BE ELECTED IF HE CAMPAIGNS THE WAY HE DID LAST TIME. He needs to have a positive program such as the one Vinehout is laying out. Telling how Walker has failed is not enough. He needs to follow up with his own program that will do what Walker has failed to do. If he wins the primary, we can only hope that he will get that message.
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